Disclosure: The ACA Foundation’s Newsletters are looking to expand more into investing and finance-related topics with its new partnership with Panther Capital. This will include coverage of equity analyses, industry analyses, positioning and allocation, and an overall content focus on the stock market and global macroeconomic events. We will be sending out “What’s up?” Daily Alerts consisting of short bullet-points and graphics of what we see and hear in the market and around the world on a daily basis.
There are two distinct ways you can view the market now. The first is you see the economy opening back up relatively soon. You see employment surging again, consumer spending and consumer confidence becoming positive, and overall business investment/spending normalizing. So, you decide to buy into the hardest-hit industries: industrials, manufacturing, oil, airlines, cruises, precious metals, store-front retail, luxury brands, shipping, and REITS. The second is you see the economy getting worse than it is now and staying shut for a couple more months even when the government and Feds will do “whatever it takes” ignoring moral hazard. Unemployment could get much worse, there could be more underlying liquidity and solvency problems, and the stock market can revisit its early March lows. In this, you would be more defensive but smart. Even though there would be an overall sell-off in all asset classes (like we experienced in March), some asset classes would fare better than others. You would position in tech, e-commerce, biotech, and healthcare. The Nasdaq, which is a composite of some of the biggest tech stocks, retraced from its lows of 30% from its February 2020 highs to around 12%. Tech has been performing well during this time with Amazon and Netflix (two of the FAANG) hitting new highs.
Retail and Manufacturing. Predictable and perhaps unavoidable, retail sales underwent a record plunge in March, dropping 8.7%. Amongst the spread of Coronavirus, businesses were forced to temporarily close their doors. Spending in areas such as Food/Beverage and Healthcare Products saw a spike in sales, but that spike is nowhere near large enough to make up for the drops in other key areas, such as Clothing and Accessories and Food Services. Analysts were forecasting an 8% drop. The news led to a tumble on Wall Street.
The Retail numbers provide a window into the effect on the American economy as a whole. Retail is a huge part of Consumer Spending, which in turn is responsible for over 66% of the American economy. With the grim retail numbers, economists believe the Consumer Spending drop will be the greatest since the number has been tracked.
In the spirit of pure speculation, we have thought about some of the longer-term impacts that Coronavirus could have on consumer spending and our economy. Something that, for the economists in the room, will shift the demand curve to the left. A change in consumer habits. With no definitive end to the shutdown in sight, it is rational to think that consumer's short term adaptations could eventually turn into lifestyle changes. They can realize they don't need to shop at certain stores, or eat out as much, or go to movie theaters. The list goes on. Just something to think about.
Let's talk about China. For the last three months, China has dominated international headlines due to the novel coronavirus. Since the virus began in China, it is easy to look to the country to estimate how the COVID-19 might impact different areas. At first, early data from China was looked at to examine how the virus might spread, but now that China is well underway with reopening their economy, many economists are looking to China to estimate how fast the rest of the world can recover, or how badly the global economy will suffer. While the majority of the headlines are unbiased, fact-checked, and data-based, there is one issue we at The ACA Foundation need to address: misinformation. The global pandemic has led to a large sense of fear and mistrust, some of which have been placed on China and has led Chinese officials to place blame on The United States. This exchange of misinformation, especially between the President and his officials and Senior Chinese Officials is dangerous and jeopardizes the ability of countries to fight the pandemic together. In this age of hyper information, it is important to think about the information you read and check its sources before you go on to support what could be misinformation.
Now back to the facts. Chinese officials claimed on March 12th that China had reached its peak of new coronavirus cases. Over a month later this seems to be the case, but it is important to note that the international community questions China’s claim of no new domestic cases and its overall transparency. Especially after China released an updated death total for Wuhan that showed an increase of deaths caused by COVID-19 by almost exactly 50%. The worst of the pandemic seems to be over for China as much of its workforce has returned to work and the rest of the world is looking to China for an idea of the economic impact. Chinese officials on Friday said that the world’s second-largest economy shrank 6.8 percent in the first quarter which is the first time China’s GDP has contracted in nearly five decades. The IMF expects the global economy to contract by 3% this year, but China is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2020 and 9.2% next year. Compared to the rest of the major economies of the world, China is set to recover from the pandemic better than ever and significantly shorten the gap between the U.S and China. China’s political outlook does not look as promising. The pandemic has starkly increased the decoupling of the U.S and Chinese economies that began with the trade war, and this is also true for some European nations like France and The U.K. The virus has even caused a divide among China and the African Union after reports of African’s living in China who were mistreated were released. For the first time in decades, African leaders expressed their displeasure with China openly instead of behind closed doors. Problems contained as China is refusing to match G-20 members in their calls to forgive loan payments or cancel debt all together for African nations. China is reluctant to do so as they are the world's largest lender to African nations, lending more than $150 billion and funding massive infrastructure works as a way to sucre access to the continent's natural resources and farmland. These issues are unlikely to persist though, as China will continue to support African nations significantly more than the rest of the world. Looking back on the latest information it seems that relative to the rest of the world China is set for a speedy and prosperous recovery as long as the coronavirus does not strike again.
Intergovernmental Organization. An IGO, often called an international organization, is an organization created by a group of international states, usually by treaty, that seeks to carry out an internationally recognized function or address an international problem that such states have not been able to do at a reasonable cost. IGO’s have proliferated especially after World War II, with prominent examples including the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Health Organization. Each of these institutions features a broad roster of member nations, from democracies and developed nations, to autocracies and developing nations. Even amongst such a diverse group of peoples, it has been largely recognized that humanity faces certain problems that go beyond the purview and power of individual states, and thus requires international cooperation to effectively come to an effective solution. This does not mean that these organizations operate free from state interference, however. Due to the increasingly interconnected nature of the 21st-century world, more and more issues are seen as global, rather than national, causes, and therefore threatens the sovereignty of even the most powerful states.
WHO threatened with potential defunding. On April 14, 2020, President Trump announced plans to eliminate future funding for the World Health Organization, due to the laggard response by the WHO in declaring COVID-19 as a worldwide pandemic. Currently, the US is the largest contributor nation to the WHO, providing 17% of its budget. This gives it more influence than other nations in how the WHO responds to crises while forcing the WHO to operate in accordance with international legal and transparency standards. Unfortunately for the WHO, the political considerations of other nations, especially powerful ones such as China, make its response to the current pandemic difficult to carry out. The Chinese government has been notoriously difficult to work with in the past and refused to acquiesce to international health transparency standards until COVID-19 infection rates had skyrocketed and cases had been reported in other nations. China acts in this manner to ensure that discontent against the government and the Communist party does not form, as potential missteps by the party leadership in response to a public health emergency could seriously threaten the stability of the government. Unfortunately for the WHO, China has a history of making life difficult for organizations that offend its government, forcing it to hold off on criticizing the Chinese response, and even declare that unsanitary practices that are officially blamed for the beginning of the pandemic (such as exotic animal wet markets) could resume. The WHO will likely continue to be funded by the United States, as defunding them would result in further Chinese influence over the powerful organization, though President Trump’s announcement does bring awareness to the continued fallibility of IGO’s in the face of pressure from authoritarian governments (like Russia and China) who seek to challenge international democratic norms, such as transparency and openness.
The ACA Foundation
The job of physically printing currency belongs to the Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing. After the currency is printed it is distributed to 28 cash offices that individually distribute the money to over 8,400 banks and other financial institutions where the currency can enter the money supply. For the 2020 final year, the Fed’s Board of Governors voted to have the BEP print 5.2 billion Federal Reserve notes, valued at $146.4 billion. This process seemingly creates money out of thin air but is actually built on the foundation of international commerce. Before 1971, most currencies were backed by gold and silver therefore the central banks of the world were limited in how they could print currency and increase the money supply. Now governments like the U.S can print money as needed and the value of their currency is decided by demand for the currency, tied to debt, and backed by the credit of the issuing nation.
When people refer to “printing money” they are usually referring to the processes the Fed undergoes to increase the money supply. The U.S Federal Reserve has several tools to control the supply of money, but two methods, in particular, are being used to carry the economy through the nationwide economic standstill. Quantitative Easing is a policy that was pioneered and widely used during the Great Recession and it involves the Fed purchasing massive amounts of financial securities, mostly U.S. government bonds, from financial institutions, with the goal of pumping more money into the economy. The other method is referred to as “helicopter money” and used much less. Helicopter money involves the Treasury Department, which under the direction of the Fed sends money directly to individuals. Most recently, the Feds have used this method and started distributing $1,200 to individuals who are eligible. You can see if you are eligible by going to IRS.gov and filling out the form. When the Fed institutes a “helicopter money” policy, like the stimulus checks being sent out this month, it is to help get rescue the economy from what is known as a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap in a simple sense is when interest rates are near zero, but the economy remains in a recession.
As of this week, the Fed’s balance sheet due to its aggressive round of quantitative easing has inflated to a record of $6.13 trillion; $5 trillion in bond holdings alone. While these measures are seen as necessary, they will likely have long term consequences. Critics of QE argue that it will lead to hyperinflation, that it allows corporations and investors to act irresponsibly, and that it could make the U.S dollar less favorable to other nations and jeopardize its status as the global reserve currency. Long term, the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is in trouble but short term, we are seeing a large use of the Fed’s central bank liquidity swap lines, which allow foreign central banks to exchange their local currency for dollars, rise to $358.1 billion. Economists currently believe that the U.S can avoid hyperinflation and even deflation by using a combination of its many other economic management policies like cutting tax rates, lowering bank reserve limits, and potentially using negative interest rates. While the long term consequences of these policies remain uncertain, it is very likely that they will remain prominent for more than a decade.
Now that we have some background, we can look at how printing and spending money affects the U.S Government. It is no secret that the federal debt had been increasing at an alarming rate and in many years the government operates with a large deficit, but now COVID-19 and the unsteady direction of President Trump has the U.S operating like never before. Ceteris paribus, the U.S federal budget deficit is on track to exceed $3.8 trillion this year, making it nearly 4 times the deficit from the prior fiscal year. By October 1st, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the federal debt to GDP ratio will be larger than the record set after World War 2 at 121.7%. Years of economic expansion, combined with the novel coronavirus have set the world stage for the worst economic conditions of our lifetime, here at the ACA Foundation we will keep you updated with the latest news and straightforward analysis to help you navigate these troubling times. Stay safe.
The ACA Foundation
There’s no such thing as fundamental analysis in this market. It’s either: stay out of the market, cost-average at predetermined times, or stare at your phone for every second when the market is open (with stop losses and the flexibility to play the ups and downs). The market is being pumped up by printed money inflating the Fed’s Balance Sheet and open Fed operations in the MUNIs, high yield debt (junk) markets, and high yield debt (junk) ETFs. The market is unpredictable, but this week we saw stocks rise (positive news from the flattening of the virus death rates + more promised stimulus), Gold and other precious metals rise, high yield bonds rise (due to Fed stimulus), and the USD drop in value.
Trump and the Feds will be doing everything possible to keep the market from falling. When countries finance their way around a problem, they open the door to inflation. The increase in currency circulating means there is a much larger supply. When the supply of something goes up, unless it’s met with an equal demand, it’s value goes down. In this case, the demand for what we purchase with cash is not expected to rise. This could lead to a devaluing of currencies, which buys fewer goods and services. Any day now we can expect a treatment or a cure for the virus which will bump up the market. But Wall Street sees something we don’t see. Economic indicators like consumer confidence and initial claims have been worst than worse; with numbers looking more like The Great Depression. The last three weeks of jobless claims totaled 16.5 million unemployed. With the total US workforce being around 157 million, this comes out to an unemployment rate of ~10%. With this, we see a disconnect of the economy and the stock market; with the economy pointing towards a recession and the stock market indicating a new expansion. But there will be consequences in education, society, and debt bubbles. And even if the economy reopens, how long will it take for everything to be back to normal?
Dollar Illiquidity, or a dollar-denominated shortage, comes from a mismatch between supply and demand, with the later overpowering the former. When we are mentioning the USD, we are talking about all dollar-denominated safe assets, which are considered like-money. This idea of dollar liquidity can get very complicated, relatively fast, so we will leave it at this definition.
A dollar illiquidity crisis, in its simplest sense, means a dry-up of liquidity. This results in a general decrease in loans across the board. The second derivative consequence leads to a rapid appreciation of the USD, leading to strain on international trade and net imports outside of the US. We recently saw a sign of this dollar illiquidity through our repo market, whose rate blew up to over 10% in late 2019.
Now that we have what it means down, we can get into how this has come about. The major underlying cause of this stems from directly after world war 2 when the USD replaced the British Pound as the new global reserve currency. The global reserve currency is a central currency that is held by a majority of central banks and other monetary authorities for the means of international trade, cross-country investments, and most aspects of the global economy. The global reserve currency cements that nation as the most fundamental aspect of the global system. This creates a large demand for our US greenback, increasing our dollar prices. Realistically, this in part, leads to the US being viewed as a safe haven during times of global doubt. This is net positive for the US, while being negative for the rest of the world. Hypothetically, this should allow the US to not only weight out a global recession but should lead to increased risk-free and risky asset prices and further dollar appreciation.
The Alchanati Campbell and Associates Team
Share Buybacks. Share buybacks and dividends have historically been used to distribute earnings back to its shareholders when the board of the company believes they don’t have a better use for the excess cash. To decide between distributing dividends or conducting share buybacks, the company decides whether they believe their shares are undervalued or overvalued, if the former, they conduct buybacks. As of the last 5 years, this has not been the case. Companies have been conducting rampant share buybacks, distributing a majority of retained earnings, further exhausting any potential cash reserves to be used during times of distress. Boards of these companies have been looking out for their own interest, conducting share buybacks, then selling into these now higher share prices with their share options. Since 2013, Boeing decided to buy back over $42b dollars’ worth of equity, while board members and insiders sold over $1.2b. If Boeing had not bought back shares, but instead amassed a cash reserve for times like this, they would not be fearing a bankruptcy and more importantly not asking the government for a bailout. The question to be asked is, why is it the US taxpayers responsibility to bail out these companies when they have never had our interest in mind? Let capitalism run its course, companies will start managing their risk better, without the safety net of knowing the government will bail them out.
Unemployment. In the month of March, non-farm payrolls fell by 700,000. It was the first time since the Financial Crisis that payrolls declined month to month. Unemployment is now up to 4.4%, the highest it's been since 2017.
We've mentioned before that the unemployment rate doesn’t capture a perfect picture of the job market. It doesn't take into account discouraged workers -- people that have simply given up looking for jobs. Also, unemployment numbers underestimate the overall impact because they don’t include people who are self-employed and ineligible for unemployment benefits. When businesses such as retail shut down, other business such as advertising become affected. And, as unemployed individuals cut back on spending, all industries are affected. Furthermore, the data collection period is based on information available the week of March 12th, before the totality of the economic shutdown began to sink in. Combining the lack of new data with the systematic flaws of the unemployment rate and it seems that the situation will only begin to appear direr as the weeks go on. Analysts of the big banks estimate that job losses will hover around 10 million when new information is released in April.
Deflation. One of the big risks that we feel is not getting enough attention is the very real threat of deflation. The opposite of inflation, deflation is the general fall of prices. It generally occurs when people are not spending money (having more goods produced than there is a demand for). I'd wager that bad deflation is more significant than inflation. Think about it. If I knew that the price of something was going to be lower tomorrow, wouldn't I wait until tomorrow to buy it? Or maybe even the next day? The stimulus package should alleviate some of the concern, but truth be told, it will depend on how long the shutdown lasts for. The government can't fund our consumption indefinitely. Well, maybe they could, but it would take some intervention never before seen in our lifetimes.
Brent Oil Index. Generally used as the benchmark for world oil prices, the price of Brent crude oil has maintained its relevance in the world oil market for over three decades. In the international oil trade, a blend of crude oil extracted from the North Sea, between the Nordic countries and Great Britain, has been used to set the price for over 60% of all oil traded on the global market. This specific oil blend was chosen because of its relatively “light” qualities, meaning it contained little sulfur and therefore could be easily refined into high-demand oil products, such as gasoline. Additionally, its source being on the ocean, its production could be increased or decreased with demand, cushioning the price from supply issues and therefore making its price more reflective of global oil demand. A rival claimant to world oil pricing, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is priced in Cushing, Oklahoma, and is largely based on American oil production. Unfortunately for WTI, its usefulness as a benchmark is diminished by the fact that Oklahoma is landlocked, meaning it must use pipeline networks to make it to the world market, and therefore can be overwhelmed when demand outstrips those networks.
Oil markets rocked by an international price war. For the past several years, OPEC, or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has maintained an economic alliance with the Russian government, where both organizations agreed to decrease production to maximize the global oil price, so as to maintain the profitability of Russian oil projects while stabilizing oil demand to a more sustainable level. However, the COVID-19 outbreak had seriously reduced global oil demand, requiring further production cuts to keep the price stable. On March 8, 2020, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia launched a price war with the Russian Federation due to a breakdown in negotiations between OPEC and Russia over whether or not to initiate further production cuts in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Russia resisting any more production cuts. By selling their oil at a massive discount to the world price (the Saudis priced their oil at 10$ a barrel), the Saudi government put massive pressure on the Russian government to agree to further production cuts, or risk upending their vitally important oil and gas industry. These actions, in combination with pandemic containment measures that have drastically reduced economic activity, have put the world oil price in freefall, with Brent Crude falling from $54 a barrel on March 4th to $34 on March 9th, and $26 on March 18th. While the pricing feud has played out between the Russian and Saudi governments, the international oil production chain has been thrown into disarray, with massive oil rig closures throughout the world, and billions being wiped from the value of oil giants such as Occidental and Haliburton. The economic pain has been especially present in the Permian Shale basin of West Texas, where a number of heavily indebted oil producers have barely hung on for years, as their methods of extraction are only economical at higher oil prices. The Permian basin has been hugely influential on the international oil markets, helping to make the United States the world’s largest oil-producing country since late 2018. A wave of bankruptcies by oil producers in the region could force many fields offline, substantially reducing world supply, and devastating the economies of oil-producing regions across North America, from West Texas, to Oklahoma, and all the way to North Dakota and Western Canada. Many have speculated that this price war is an indirect way for Russia to wipe out American competition in the oil industry, as the country is especially dependent on oil exports to finance its national budget, and could, in the long run, strengthen the Russian government’s influence over global energy markets, if American producers are allowed to go offline. President Trump has recently announced that he believes that Saudi Arabia and Russia are close to reaching a deal over production cuts, indicating that the US government has intervened in the talks between the oil giants, though an agreement is far from certain between the feuding powers.
Just for a second imagine you are a small business owner. You have fought and worked tirelessly to keep your business alive, on average you worked 20 hours more per week than the average American worker. After 10 long years, your work has paid off and you are part of just 30% of small businesses that make it past 10 years. Something that you have created is part of the other 30 million small businesses that together make up the backbone of the American Economy. But after years of economic growth things have taken a sharp and sudden turn. Not only is the economy heading for a massive recession, but now your business is effectively shut down. In the best-case scenario you are providing some essential product or service and are allowed to stay open at the cost of you and your employees' health, but worst case your business is completely shut down.
To help small business owners face these unprecedented circumstances the Federal Government has approved $376 billion to be used in the “relief for American workers and small businesses”. The Federal Government, in working with the U.S Small Business Administration, has concluded that small businesses will face issues in securing capital, maintaining a workforce/inventory, facility remediation, insurance coverage, market demand, and in general adjustment to the circumstances. To combat these issues the SBA is facilitating the use of the $376 billion through a variety of loans to small business owners, many of which are forgivable. Unfortunately, much like the approved stimulus check, these loans are running into problems. As of today, the Federal loan program for small businesses was supposed to be up and running, but the SBA and the U.S Treasury were still finalizing details that left banks unprepared to handle the flood of applications. The hope is that in the coming weeks the process will be streamlined, and small businesses will get the money they desperately need. Some banks are already approving applicants and as of this afternoon Bank of America alone had granted over 58,000 client loans and received over 22.2 billion in applications.
The Alchanati Campbell and Associates Team
What has happened over the past 3 weeks is something that none of us have ever experienced in our entire lives. As a result, the S&P 500 has had a 34% drawdown, 3.3 million unemployed, and some of our leading industries and companies will never recover from the economic paralysis we face. This situation is going to get worse, and we will soon enter a recession. Regardless of where you stand, I am going to lay out some important factors to consider going forward and how they will likely impact you.
First, let’s take a step back from the pandemic and look at our economy from a big-picture perspective. The downturn was inevitable, regardless of COVID. After 12 years of expansion, our consumer debt service payments to income ratio is growing and they are close to 2008 levels. All it takes is to start a downturn is for debt service to outpace income growth, and everyone stops spending. This causes our economy to contract. In a sudden and unpredictable black swan event, it was the virus that stopped our spending. And not just our spending – entire industries have been paralyzed and key businesses are not allowed to generate revenue for a whole quarter. This alone will hurt all of us for at least a year.
All of this is happening while the Fed has lowered the federal funds rate to zero. This is now a trend across the globe, as we have $10 trillion+ in outstanding debt with negative interest rates. This means two things for the United States: the Fed can’t stimulate the economy using rates, and QE will barely raise asset prices. Demand for near-zero interest rate bonds can only go so high. Now the Fed has to turn to riskier means of stimulating. The Fed has turned to “helicopter money” – essentially handing money to institutions and individuals. The $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus that was recently passed is the biggest in history. The risk that this has is causing inflation while incomes decrease, and devaluing the dollar. The dollar is currently at risk for losing its viability as the worlds’ reserve currency, both because of inflation and less foreign demand for US financial assets. While some inflation as a result of this is a risk, it is likely we will see deflation throughout the duration of the recession due to spending on consumer goods and services drastically decreasing.
In these uncertain and difficult times, it may seem that gold would be the best hedge against systematic risk. While gold historically performs well in times of economic hardship, it also has a strong positive correlation to inflation and a negative correlation to deflation. We could see considerable inflation as a result of the Fed's stimulus in the short term. However, we also have a significant amount of outstanding consumer debt service relative to income. Given the considerable drop in incomes - households, consumers, and businesses will likely use this money to pay off their debt and not spend it. This will cause deflation. Not to mention the further economic weakness we are likely to endure that will exacerbate that lack of spending and the decline in prices of financial assets. A bigger risk for the price of Gold is the continuation of the leverage unwind and the liquidity squeeze. Keep this in mind when considering gold as a hedge, or other “safe-haven” assets that are correlated to inflation.
Another major factor affecting the market is volatility. Volatility has likely peaked at the inception of our downturn, but we are sure to see more as it persists. We’re currently in a liquidity crunch, which has adversely impacted highly leveraged assets such as derivatives. Many leveraged ETFs such as $JNUG have reduced their exposure, and over 30 have closed over the past three weeks. This particularly affects leveraged ETFs because, in contrast to common knowledge, many do not amplify the returns of their underlying asset on a total-return basis – they do it on a daily basis. Meaning, daily gains or losses get compounded. If you look at the total max return of many leveraged ETFs, you’ll notice they’ve lost nearly all their value because of this. This effect is magnified by volatility, so keep this mind moving forward if you plan on considering leveraged ETFs as safety assets.
Finally, equities have clearly taken a big hit, though we have seen some rallying as a result of the mass liquidation and Fed response in the past week. The rallying will likely continue, though I wouldn’t recommend you don’t try to time it. The industries most heavily impacted are airlines, hospitality, and staffing. While many of the companies and industries that have been impacted have experienced real drawdowns in their financial performance, and some will go bankrupt, most leading companies will recover and prevail over the long run. Some profitable companies with high earnings potential relative to their prices and healthy balance sheets have lost over 80% of their stock value in the last month. This means there are currently big mispricings in the market. Five years from now, the drawdowns caused by the coronavirus will have no effect on financial performance. This is the best way to think about equities as a retail investor.
In summary, we’re currently in a downturn that is headed towards a recession. It will likely fit the classic “U-shaped” recession (even though we have experienced the biggest fall in the shortest amount of time, looking more like it could be a “V-shaped” recession), in that we have a prolonged recovery period as a result of the unique cause and limited means of stimulation we have. It depends on how and how soon policymakers continue to react. Financial assets will continue to decline, people will continue to lose their jobs, and incomes will fall. In the end, we may have other social, policy, and global financial implications we haven’t seen before. At this point, no one can predict the direction we’re heading in with any certainty. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will get through it. In fact, we will thrive in the long run, as we have at the end of all previous crises. Many of our biggest achievements and innovations in history have resulted from adversity. As G. Michael Hopf said – “Strong men create hard times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times. Hard times create strong men”. While the context doesn’t apply perfectly, that pattern tends to be the cycle in our economy. And it always trends upward in the long run.
The Alchanati Campbell and Associates Team
WHAT'S UP FRIDAY? is a weekly newsletter that will give you a summary of "What's up?" on Wall Street, in the US and around the World written by The Alchanati Campbell and Associates Team. What makes us unique is we focus on long-term knowledge; knowledge that will still be useful to you 10 years from now.