What's up 2008? Are we there yet?

​Dear Climber,

Do you ever sit back in a chair designed by Mies van der Rohe and ponder about life, challenge, purpose and missed opportunity? Well, I can’t say I don’t…


The Market. Things are slowing down. There’s a feeling of inevitability that the latest correction will turn into something worse. Everyone knows it is coming. But a recession is nothing to fear. The down part of the business cycle is necessary. The US is now a net oil exporter (exports more oil than it imports). Trade tensions, US rate hikes and weaker global trade growth has hurt emerging markets. The #MeToo movement had a setback on Wall Street this week. Many are spooked by the movement and react by “avoiding women at all cost”. 155,000 jobs were added to the US economy in November, below estimates of 198,000.

From what I know. Life consists of everything we know and everything we are capable of knowing. There are secrets and new discoveries, but what we are able to know will be known and it will leave everything else unknown. Life is but a moment. It builds upon the past, but it could never be the future because the future is unknown. Life is about discipline and what you make of yourself. The only thing important is where you’re going, not where you came from. Life is about the connections you make and the connections you keep. Don’t dwell on the past and on the ones that you’ve lost, but remember whatever happens, happens rightly and what is destined to be yours, will be yours. Life is all about your inner voice: everything it says, everything it feels and everything it moves you to do. Master it and you’ll master your world.

3- and 5-year Treasury inversion. The spread between the 3 year and 5 year Treasury yields turned negative for the first time in more than a decade. For stocks, it means risks of a bear market. For the dollar, it means a possible decrease in value. For emerging markets, it means a bullish signal for future growth. For credit, it boosts companies’ marginal cost of capital and its harder to access long-term financing. But does the yield curve really forecast recessions? The real interest rate measures the rate at which consumption is expected to grow over a given horizon. If the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates are negative, then growth is expected to decelerate.

The Essential Marcus Aurelius. Yes, we are in a Roman philosophy phase (We wanna be Stoics). Rule over oneself and never to be “carried away” by anything. The struggle not to be overthrown by our emotions. Conduct oneself in a gentle and dignified way. The accomplishment of necessary duties without complaint. Nor can I be angry with my fellow man or hate him, for we have been made for cooperation. Perform every action in your life as if it were your last, putting aside all aimlessness and emotional resistance to the choices of reason. People are ignorant of what is good and what is bad, which is no less a disability than the inability to distinguish white from black. Our lives are but a series of choices. If something noble is to be done or said, do not judge yourself unworthy of doing or saying it. It is not the actions of others that trouble us but rather it is our own judgments.

Wealth inequality. In order to survive, any flowing system must evolve to increase its access to flow. If movement is hierarchical, then so is wealth. For example, our highway systems operate through a few large, high-capacity freeways and many small, local streets. Today, globalization continues to create an unequal distribution of wealth over the population. As time moves on, inequality cannot be avoided even with legislation.


Keep Climbing,


The Alchanati Campbell and Associates Team